Very thoughtful and timely discussion. I think part of the answer will come in the form of innovations in how people understand and use property rights. This may not be apparent at the get-go, so please allow me to explain.

At the heart of the Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) movement are a growing number of legal strategies to subvert property law against itself in a manner to leads to positive feedback loops for preserving the commons. This does more than lead to cool gadgets like the Creative Commons licenses themselves. It gets at the heart of modern-era capitalism and introduces elements of social responsibility into the mix at critical junctures.

You can read Peter Barnes book, Capitalism 3.0, to get a sense of how this legal sanctioning of valuable commons is a transformative step in the evolution of capitalist systems. There is quite a lot at play here.

I draw attention to this because the most profound shifts in commons-preserving mechanisms occur at the cultural (rather than legal or political) level. People begin to conceptualize property – and therefore wealth – in very different ways. Perhaps it will be the case that many social media platforms of today will go down with the collapsing capitalist system of yesteryear. It is too early to tell. But new quasi-capitalist structures are emerging that place value and wealth in the realm of community-oriented activities. When these structures become more stable (i.e. are less constrained by old capitalist institutions), they will become viable economically in the Share Economy that arises with them.

The future of social media will involve significant cultural shifts in the meaning of wealth. If you want to know more about my thinking on this, check out this article I wrote a few months ago:

http://www.cognitivepolicyworks.com/2009/02/23/...

Best,

Joe Brewer
Founder, Cognitive Policy Works

(P.S. I am now following you on Twitter. If you'd like, you can follow me at http://www.twitter.com/cognitivepolicy.)

Allen – Nice summary on WebVan and its failures. I’m intrigued by YourCrocer.com. I certainly agree with you on the failure of the business model.

I founded http://www.YourGrocer.com in 1997 and, 2 years later, I tried to loudly warn people about investing in Webvan (instead of my bulk grocery service) because Webvan had this crazy idea that people should be able to order one can of tuna and one toothbrush and still have a delivery truck burn $20 in fuel and labor to deliver this to you at home. Not only was this unprofitable, but consumers consumed the products so fast that they felt unsatisfied with the service itself.

Webvan crashed horribly while YourGrocer.com still survives as the bulk grocery service it started out as. When people buy $300 worth of groceries at a time, there is enough profit to cover the $20 it inevitably costs to deliver.

A friend on Wall Street got this response from Webvan when he suggested they buy YourGrocer and adopt my model: “Why bother? We will crush them when we come to New York.” Riiight.

Moral of the story is test for management arrogance before you invest anywhere.

Flash forward to 2009: I’ve been advising social network site owners that they have to bring profiles into email via add-ons like SenderOK. Some are listening. Some seem to be off partying.

As Twitter is proving, you cannot just stay on the web. You have to be present in other places via apps, etc.

The sites that will survive are the ones that will listen to others. Look at how many people some of the young moguls are following or not following on Twitter. Invest in those who are clearly open minded.

Very thoughtful and timely discussion. I think part of the answer will come in the form of innovations in how people understand and use property rights. This may not be apparent at the get-go, so please allow me to explain.

At the heart of the Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) movement are a growing number of legal strategies to subvert property law against itself in a manner to leads to positive feedback loops for preserving the commons. This does more than lead to cool gadgets like the Creative Commons licenses themselves. It gets at the heart of modern-era capitalism and introduces elements of social responsibility into the mix at critical junctures.

You can read Peter Barnes book, Capitalism 3.0, to get a sense of how this legal sanctioning of valuable commons is a transformative step in the evolution of capitalist systems. There is quite a lot at play here.

I draw attention to this because the most profound shifts in commons-preserving mechanisms occur at the cultural (rather than legal or political) level. People begin to conceptualize property – and therefore wealth – in very different ways. Perhaps it will be the case that many social media platforms of today will go down with the collapsing capitalist system of yesteryear. It is too early to tell. But new quasi-capitalist structures are emerging that place value and wealth in the realm of community-oriented activities. When these structures become more stable (i.e. are less constrained by old capitalist institutions), they will become viable economically in the Share Economy that arises with them.

The future of social media will involve significant cultural shifts in the meaning of wealth. If you want to know more about my thinking on this, check out this article I wrote a few months ago:

http://www.cognitivepolicywork.....ive-world/

Best,

Joe Brewer
Founder, Cognitive Policy Works

(P.S. I am now following you on Twitter. If you’d like, you can follow me at http://www.twitter.com/cognitivepolicy.)